CONCORD, N.C. -- With Saturday night’s race at Daytona looming, two of the four Hendrick Motorsports drivers are locked into the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs this season, while the others sit right on the cusp.
Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman are in after they each secured wins this season. William Byron is four points above the cutoff line at 16th in the playoff standings with Jimmie Johnson on his heels, just four points back on the outside of the bubble.
Right in the mix with Byron and Johnson is competitor Matt DiBenedetto, who is just nine points above the cutoff after 17th- and 20th-place finishes at Dover. This means there is a chance both Byron and Johnson can make the playoffs in Saturday evening’s regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway.
“I’ve been doing this too long to worry too much,” Johnson said of the stress of making the playoffs. “Championship pressure, thankfully I’ve been through that a bunch of different times. I guess maybe that’s where experience will play through for me this weekend and I’ll be able to keep my head on straight, think, keep my emotions in check and really race with a clear and open mind.”
Ten drivers have clinched playoff berths with regular-season wins. Another three spots were filled based on how the points settled after this past weekend’s doubleheader at Dover. That leaves three playoff spots available at Daytona.
Here are several playoff scenarios that could shake out Saturday night under the lights.
Byron in, Johnson out:
For Byron to join Elliott and Bowman in the playoffs, he will need to not let anyone encroach on his No. 16 points spot. That means staying one step ahead of Johnson at “The World Center of Racing.” Stage points, stage wins and an outright victory can secure Byron’s position. But Daytona poses unique challenges.
“I don’t think you can really points race (at Daytona),” Byron said. “It’s going to be a race to be as aggressive as you can and hope things fall your way.”
Johnson in, Byron out:
Johnson’s move to get into the playoffs is simple: Get enough points to at least take over the No. 16 playoff position. Like with Byron, an outright win will secure a berth. If he is unable to go to victory lane, collecting stage wins and stage points will be vital for Johnson. He must pick up at least five more points than Byron to pass him.
Both Byron and Johnson in:
In this scenario, DiBenedetto would have to falter. That could happen if either Hendrick Motorsports driver wins the race and the other earns enough points to make up the difference. But winning isn't necessary. Both teammates also can be on the right side of the bubble by outscoring DiBenedetto in a points shootout. Since DiBenedetto is only nine points above Johnson and five ahead of Byron, it’s plausible that both could move into the playoffs while DiBenedetto is the odd man out.
In fact, Byron has outscored DiBenedetto by six points or more seven times in 2020, including two of the last three races. Johnson has gained at least 10 points on him eight times this year, including each of the last three events. On four occasions, both Hendrick Motorsports drivers earned enough points in the same race to pass DiBenedetto on Saturday, including two of the last three.
Both Byron and Johnson out:
This could happen if DiBenedetto has a good day and if another wild-card driver wins his first race of the season. Even if a driver is below Byron and Johnson in the standings, he still will get into the playoffs over them if he wins at Daytona and is in the top 30 in points.
Bowyer and Jones:
Ranked 11th in the standings, Clint Bowyer has not officially clinched a 2020 playoff position, but he needs only three points at Daytona to lock in.
While it’s mathematically possible for Erik Jones to qualify without winning, he would have to make up 46 points on Johnson and 50 on Byron, which is a tall order. Jones is currently the second driver out of the playoffs going into Daytona.
If there is a tie:
If Byron matches DiBenedetto in the point standings, DiBenedetto has the tiebreaker edge by virtue of his second-place finish at Las Vegas earlier this season. Johnson would have to score a runner-up result at Daytona to break a tie with DiBenedetto.
Should teammates Johnson and Byron tie each other, Johnson would own the tiebreaker unless Byron finishes second at Daytona.
Tune in to the regular season finale on Saturday, Aug. 29 at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC to see Byron and Johnson race for the playoffs.