CONCORD, N.C. – The NASCAR Cup Series returns to action this weekend at Nashville Superspeedway, meaning there are 10 races left before the 16-driver postseason field is set.
To date, Hendrick Motorsports has claimed nearly one-third of the points-paying races (five), with William Byron and Kyle Larson locked into the playoffs. Despite missing three points races, Alex Bowman holds the final provisional playoff spot. Chase Elliott is essentially in must-win territory given his points deficit from missing seven races.
What has unfolded so far? How do things stand from a playoff perspective? And what opportunities are there for the quartet of Hendrick Motorsports drivers as the regular season enters the home stretch?
Editor's note: The projected playoff point total takes into account any race wins and stage wins already achieved, as well as the current position a driver has in the regular season standings (along with any subsequent playoff points awarded from that for a driver that is in the top 10 of those standings). The driver leading the point standings at the end of the regular season receives 15 playoff points, second place earns 10 playoff points, third place earns eight playoff points and it is a sliding scale down to the 10th position in the final regular season standings earning one playoff point.
William Byron, No. 24 RaptorTough.com Chevrolet team
Regular season standings rank: Second
Wins: Three (Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Phoenix Raceway and Darlington Raceway)
Top fives: Seven
Top 10s: Nine
Laps led: 717
Stage wins: Seven
Projected playoff point total (rank): 2,027 (first) if the playoffs started today
Three key story lines and opportunities for Byron in the remainder of the regular season:
1-200th Cup Series start: Byron is scheduled to make his 200th series start on July 16 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. "I don’t know that I dreamed about making this many starts this early in my career," Byron said. "Everything happened really quickly. I got to the Cup Series when I was 20 years old. Now, being 25 and in my sixth year is really special."
2-Pocono Raceway-Richmond Raceway stretch: This back-to-back stretch at the end of July is a real opportunity for Byron. Pocono is his best track remaining in the regular season based on average finish (9.4). He has two top fives and five top 10s in nine starts at the 2.5-mile track. While his overall numbers at Richmond don’t stand out, his 239 laps led in his last three races there do. That mark is his most at any track since the start of 2022 and the most by any driver at the .75-mile track in that stretch.
3-Pursuing regular season championship: Currently, Byron trails points leader Martin Truex Jr. by 13 points for the top spot in the regular season standings. The difference between first and second in the final regular season standings is an additional five playoff points – essentially an extra win. As we’ve seen in the playoffs, every little bit helps. The 25-year-old driver has had his best season to date, leading or sharing the lead in the following statistical categories: Wins (three), top fives (seven), top 10s (nine), laps led (717) and stage wins (seven). He hasn’t achieved this success alone, as the No. 24 pit crew has been the best on pit road this season. Should Byron earn the regular season championship, it would be the third straight for Hendrick Motorsports (Larson in 2021 and Elliott in 2022).
PHOTOS: Every William Byron victory at Hendrick Motorsports
Kyle Larson, No. 5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet team
Regular season standings rank: 10th
Wins: Two (Richmond Raceway and Martinsville Speedway)
Top fives: Six
Top 10s: Seven
Laps led: 588
Stage wins: Two
Projected playoff point total (rank): 2,013 (fifth) if the playoffs started today
Three key story lines and opportunities for Larson in the remainder of the regular season:
1-Nashville Superspeedway: This is the home of Larson’s best average finish (2.5) in the Cup Series. He won the inaugural race at the 1.33-mile track and finished fourth in last year’s race. Concrete tracks have been a strength for the 30-year-old driver in his career as he has a win at each of the other two tracks with that surface (Dover Motor Speedway and Bristol Motor Speedway).
2-Road courses: Larson’s four wins on serpentine layouts are tied for the third-most among active drivers in the Cup Series. While no one has yet to run the Chicago Street Course, he has a top-five finish on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course and has won the last two races held at Watkins Glen International. The speed of Watkins Glen has stood out to Larson in his years racing at the New York-located track. "Watkins Glen is where you seem to get faster every lap and the tires get more grip each lap so you can attack it more and more as the runs go on and as the race goes on," Larson said. "It is the fastest road course we probably go to as far as sustained minimum speed. The braking zones are short. It is pretty intense for a road course."
3-Richmond: In April, the driver of the No. 5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 won at the .75-mile track. If you count the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway, Larson has won the last three short-track races on the 2023 schedule. The July 30 race at Richmond is the final short-track event of the regular season, so it's a big opportunity for Larson to add to his win and playoff point bucket.
PHOTOS: All of Kyle Larson's wins at Hendrick Motorsports
Alex Bowman, No. 48 Ally Chevrolet team
Regular season standings rank: 16th
Top fives: Three
Top 10s: Six
Laps led: 47
Projected playoff point total (rank): 1,995 (16th) if the playoffs started today
Three key story lines and opportunities for Bowman in the remainder of the regular season:
1-Push for the playoffs: Bowman holds the final provisional playoff spot by three points and is in a tight battle with several drivers to reach the postseason. One area where Bowman can make significant gains towards the playoffs is in scoring stage points. He ranks 13th in the series with 66. Part of this can be attributed to his qualifying performance, as he has only qualified in the top 10 twice on weekends when qualifying has taken place.
2-Maintaining consistency: Prior to suffering a fractured vertebra, Bowman experienced the best start of his career under the guidance of new crew chief Blake Harris. With an average finish of 10.3, he led the series through the first 10 races, having finished outside the top 15 only once. Although his average finish on the season is now at 12.0, it still ranks as the second-best mark among full-time drivers. Continuing to crank out top 10s and top 15s will keep the Tucson, Arizona, native in the playoff hunt for the remainder of the regular season.
3-Late July stretch: Bowman has wins at two of the remaining 10 tracks in the regular season – Pocono Raceway and Richmond Raceway. Since 2021, the 30-year-old driver has average finishes inside the top 10 at each of those tracks. His 6.3 average finish at “The Tricky Triangle,” is his third-best in that stretch. At Richmond, his eighth-place finish in the spring marked his fourth top 10 in his last six starts at the Virginia venue. "Richmond was probably one of my worst racetracks when I first started running and I feel like it’s become one of my better racetracks," Bowman said. "I feel like we kind of got it figured out there with the Gen-6 car at the end and have kind of carried over what I looked for in that car to what I look for with the Next Gen car."
PHOTOS: See all of Alex Bowman's wins at Hendrick Motorsports
Chase Elliott, No. 9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet team
Regular season standings rank: 27th
Top fives: Three
Top 10s: Five
Laps led: 37
Stage win: One
Projected playoff point total (rank): Would not make the playoffs if season ended today
Three key story lines and opportunities for Elliott in the remainder of the regular season:
1-Win to get in: After missing seven races this season, Elliott’s path to reach the playoffs on points is going to be tough. A win would be the surest way for the 27-year-old driver to make the postseason. He has victories in each of the past five seasons and his 18 wins since 2018 are tied for the third-most in the series. Among the tracks left in the regular season, Elliott has wins at four of those venues: Watkins Glen International (two wins), Atlanta Motor Speedway (one win), Nashville Superspeedway (one win) and Pocono Raceway (one win). In pursuit of victory lane, expect crew chief Alan Gustafson to gamble a little more when the opportunity presents itself since the path to the playoffs on points is unlikely.
2-Road courses: Elliott is the most decorated active driver on road courses with seven wins on that track type. He ranks third all-time in road course victories, behind NASCAR Hall of Famers Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart. The final 10 races of the regular season will feature three serpentine layouts: the Chicago Street Course (July 2), the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course (Aug. 13) and Watkins Glen (Aug. 20). While the Chicago layout is brand new to the series and he has a top-five finish at Indianapolis, Watkins Glen is the real opportunity. In addition to his back-to-back wins in 2018 and 2019, he has not finished outside the top five and led the most laps (161) in the last four races there.
3-Summer swing: Last year’s summer stretch was a real strength for Elliott. Even a fraction of that success would serve to be real boon for the No. 9 team. In the five races following the off week, Elliott went first (Nashville), second (Road America), first (Atlanta), second (New Hampshire Motor Speedway) and first (Pocono). His Nashville win came under the lights due to a weather delay and that race is now an early evening start. The Dawsonville, Georgia, native has two top-six finishes at the reconfigured Atlanta track. The Atlanta win in particular was "one of the more special days throughout my racing career," Elliott said. "To win at your home track is such a huge thing for any driver."
PHOTOS: Recap all of Chase Elliott's wins with Hendrick Motorsports
Four key story lines to watch for Hendrick Motorsports as an organization:
1-Closing in on 300 Cup Series wins: The all-time winningest organization in Cup Series history is four victories away from 300.
2-500 engine wins: The Hendrick Motorsports engine department is responsible for 494 wins across NASCAR’s national series – only six victories away from 500.
3-Going after a Xfinity win: The No. 17 HendrickCars.com Chevy Camaro will make two more NASCAR Xfinity Series starts in 2023. Bowman will drive the car at Watkins Glen International (on Aug. 19) and Larson will be behind the wheel at Darlington Raceway (Sept. 2).
4-250 poles in the Cup Series: Heading to Nashville Superspeedway, the Rick Hendrick-owned squad has 244 Cup Series poles – six away from 250.
BEHIND THE LENS: The sights of the 24 Hours of Le Mans