CONCORD, N.C. – There’s no doubt, a NASCAR Cup Series championship in 2024 for Chase Elliott would be a popular one.
And you know what? It would also be deserved.
That’s because Elliott has already spent the first 26 races of 2024 doing most of the things that earn title trophies. He’s limited mistakes, avoided trouble and largely, maximized finishes, just as he did at Darlington Raceway last Sunday in coming home 11th.
So, why will Chase Elliott hoist the Bill France Cup after the championship race at Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 10?
One word: consistency.
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And look, we know, it’s been written about in other publications, talked about ad nauseum on TV and on podcasts – by now, Elliott’s steady-Eddie act is no secret.
But it’s also nothing new for the 28-year-old from Dawsonville, Georgia.
“It’s the way he thinks and the way he races and the way he executes,” Hendrick Motorsports vice chairman and NASCAR Hall of Famer, Jeff Gordon, said. “I think right now, if I just look at who’s the most solid championship-caliber team, I think it’s them because, OK, they might not have the laps led and the number of wins but they also don’t have the DNFs. They’re always in this third-to-seventh range almost every weekend and that’s strong.”
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It's an astute observation from a man with four Cup Series titles himself and there’s plenty of data to back it up.
Consider that there have been 98 races in the Gen-7 era. Among all drivers to have made at least 90 starts in that time, 26 of them in total, Elliott’s six DNFs are the fewest, two fewer than Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski and Justin Haley.
Hey, you’ve gotta be in it to win it, and nobody has done it better with this car than Elliott.
But it hasn’t just been surviving. Over that same timeframe, Elliott has accumulated the best average finish among drivers with more than one start at 12.4. He’s tied for fourth in top-10 finishes (47) and has the most top 20s (75).
This season, Elliott has taken all that and ramped it up even further. He’s finished outside the top 20 just three times and that has only furthered a run that began at the end of 2023 when he had just three such showings over the final 21 events. Add those up, and that’s six finishes of 20th or worse in his last 47 starts. That compared to 12 top fives and 23 top 10s in that time as well.
That dependability has certainly translated to the 10 tracks in the playoffs as well. Since the start of 2021, in 52 starts at venues in the postseason, Elliott failed to make it to the end only once, and that includes two drafting tracks – Atlanta Motor Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway. For his career, he averages better than a 14th-place finish at nine of the 10, with only Las Vegas Motor Speedway (18.6) as an outlier.
And did we mention that more than half of his career wins (10 of 19) have come at tracks in the playoffs? That includes victories at the Charlotte Roval, Martinsville Speedway and Phoenix, three of the final five races, en route to a championship in 2020.
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“Again, I go back to the schedule,” Gordon said. “I think there’s a lot of good race tracks for them and I think a lot of people don’t realize that if you go look at owner and driver over the last few years, those guys have been there. Remember, last year he was out of it on the driver side because of injury but that team was in that top four. I think they’re a real championship-caliber team this year.”
The five wins Elliott collected in his championship season are tied with the five he earned in 2022 for the best total in a single season. But in those two seasons combined, Elliott also accumulated 19 finishes of 20th or worse.
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While maybe not as flashy, the portfolio Elliott has built over the last season-and-a-half point to a driver that’s still maturing and still improving now in his ninth full-time Cup Season.
Frankly, there’s been no safer bet in NASCAR than the fact that Elliott is going to be there at the end of a race.
And don’t be surprised if that’s not why he’ll be there at the end of this championship push as well.